Randomised placebo-controlled trial of antenatal corticosteroids for planned birth in twins (STOPPIT-3): study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the STOPPIT-3 study is to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) prior to planned birth of twins in a multicentre placebo-controlled trial with internal pilot. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will comprise a multicentre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in at least 50 UK obstetric units. The target population is 1552 women with a twin pregnancy and a planned birth between 35 and 38+6 weeks' gestation recruited from antenatal clinics. Women will be randomised to Dexamethasone Phosphate (24 mg) or saline administered via two intramuscular injections 24 hours apart, 24-120 hours prior to scheduled birth. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is need for respiratory support within 72 hours of birth. Secondary and safety outcomes will be included. Cognitive and language development at age 2 years will be assessed in a subset of participants using the Parent report of Children's Abilities-Revised questionnaire. We will also determine the cost effectiveness of the treatment with ACS compared with placebo. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: STOPPIT-3 has been funded and approved by the National Institute of Healthcare Research. It has been approved by the West Midlands Research Ethics Committee (22/WM/0018). The results will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentation and will also be communicated to the public via links with charity partners and social media. TRIAL SPONSOR: The University of Edinburgh and Lothian Health Board ACCORD, The Queen's Medical Research Institute, 47 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh, EH16 4TJ. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN59959611.

PROMPT: Prospective Meta-analysis for Pessary Trials Study Protocol.

OBJECTIVE: Preterm birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks of gestation, is a leading cause of perinatal and infant mortality throughout the world. Preterm birth is also associated with long-term neurological disabilities and other significant health issues in children. A short cervix in the second trimester has been noted to be one of the strongest predictors of subsequent spontaneous preterm birth in both singleton and multiple pregnancies. Some studies have shown that cervical support in the form of an Arabin pessary lowers the risk of preterm birth in women with a singleton gestation and short cervical length; however, other studies have conflicting results. Our objective was to form an international collaborative of planned or ongoing randomized trials of pessary in singleton and twin gestations with a short cervix. STUDY DESIGN: In November 2014, an international group of investigators, who had initiated or were planning randomized trials of pessary for pregnant people with a short cervix and singleton or twin gestation to prevent preterm birth, formed a collaboration to plan a prospective individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomized trials (PROspective Meta-analysis of Pessary Trials [PROMPT]). The PROMPT investigators agreed on meta-analysis IPD hypotheses for singletons and twins, eligibility criteria, and a set of core baseline and outcome measures. The primary outcome is a composite of fetal death or preterm delivery before 32 weeks' gestation. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidities. The PROMPT protocol may be viewed as a written agreement among the study investigators who make up the PROMPT consortium (PROSPERO ID# CRD42018067740). RESULTS: Results will be published in phases as the individual participating studies are concluded and published. Results of the first phase of singleton and twin pessary trials are expected to be available in late 2022. Updates are planned as participating trials are completed and published. KEY POINTS: · Short cervical length predicts preterm birth.. · Results of prior cervical pessary trials are mixed.. · Meta-analysis of pessary trials protocol..

Monofilament suture versus braided suture thread to improve pregnancy outcomes after vaginal cervical cerclage (C-STICH): a pragmatic randomised, controlled, phase 3, superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Miscarriage in the second trimester and preterm birth are significant global problems. Vaginal cervical cerclage is performed to prevent pregnancy loss and preterm birth. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of a monofilament suture thread compared with braided suture thread on pregnancy loss rates in women undergoing a cervical cerclage. METHODS: C-STICH was a pragmatic, randomised, controlled, superiority trial done at 75 obstetric units in the UK. Women with a singleton pregnancy who received a vaginal cervical cerclage due to a history of pregnancy loss or premature birth, or if indicated by ultrasound, were centrally randomised (1:1) using minimisation to receive a monofilament suture or braided suture thread for their cervical cerclage. Women and outcome assessors were masked to allocation as far as possible. The primary outcome was pregnancy loss, defined as miscarriage, stillbirth, or neonatal death in the first week of life, analysed in the intention-to-treat population (ie, all women who were randomly assigned). Safety was also assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN15373349. FINDINGS: Between Aug 21, 2015, and Jan 28, 2021, 2049 women were randomly assigned to receive a monofilament suture (n=1025) or braided suture (n=1024). The primary outcome was ascertained in 1003 women in the monofilament suture group and 993 women in the braided suture group. Pregnancy loss occurred in 80 (8·0%) of 1003 women in the monofilament suture group and 75 (7·6%) of 993 women in the braided suture group (adjusted risk ratio 1·05 [95% CI 0·79 to 1·40]; adjusted risk difference 0·002 [95% CI -0·02 to 0·03]). INTERPRETATION: Monofilament suture did not reduce rate of pregnancy loss when compared with a braided suture. Clinicians should use the results of this trial to facilitate discussions around the choice of suture thread to optimise outcomes. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Training in Ultrasound to Determine Gestational Age in Low- and Middle- Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

Introduction: Establishing an accurate gestational age is essential for the optimum management of pregnancy, delivery and neonatal care, with improved estimates of gestational age considered a public health priority by the World Health Organization (WHO). Although ultrasound is considered the most precise method to achieve this, it is unavailable to many women in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), where the lack of trained practitioners is considered a major barrier. This systematic review explores what initiatives have previously been undertaken to train staff to date pregnancies using ultrasound, which were successful and what barriers and facilitators influenced training. Methods: The systematic review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines and the protocol registered (PROSPERO CRD42019154619). Searches were last performed in July 2021. Studies were screened independently by two assessors, with data extracted by one and verified by the other. Both reviewers graded the methodological quality using the Mixed Methods Assessment Tool. Results were collated within prespecified domains, generating a narrative synthesis. Results: 25/1,262 studies were eligible for inclusion, all of which were programme evaluations. Eighteen were undertaken in Africa, three in South-East Asia, one in South America, and three across multiple sites, including those in Africa, Asia, and South America. Five programs specified criteria to pass, and within these 96% of trainees did so. Trainee follow up was undertaken in 18 studies. Ten met recommendations for training outlined by the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology (ISUOG) but only 1 met the current standards set by the WHO. Discussion: This systematic review is the first to evaluate this topic and has uncovered major inconsistencies in the delivery and reporting of basic obstetric ultrasound training in LMICs, with the majority of programs not meeting minimum recommendations. By identifying these issues, we have highlighted key areas for improvement and made recommendations for reporting according to the RE-AIM framework. With an increasing focus on the importance of improving estimates of gestational age in LMICs, we believe these findings will be of significance to those seeking to develop and expand the provision of sustainable obstetric ultrasound in LMICs. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019154619, PROSPERO CRD42019154619.

Training in Ultrasound to Determine Gestational Age (TUDA): Evaluation of a Novel Education Package to Teach Ultrasound-Naive Midwives Basic Obstetric Ultrasound in Malawi.

Introduction: Although ultrasound to determine gestational age is fundamental to the optimum management of pregnancy and is recommended for all women by the World Health Organisation, it remains unavailable to many women in low-income countries where trained practitioners are scarce. This study aimed to evaluate a novel, context-specific education package to teach midwives basic obstetric ultrasound, including the determination of gestational age by measurement of fetal femur length. Methods: The study was conducted across six sites in Malawi in January 2021. Following a virtual "training of the trainers", local teams delivered a 10-day programme encompassing both didactic and "hands on" components. Matched pre and post course tests assessed participants' knowledge of key concepts, with Objective Structured Clinical Examinations used to evaluate practical skills. To achieve a pass, trainees were required to establish the gestational age to within ±7 days of an experienced practitioner and achieve an overall score of >65% on five consecutive occasions. A matched pre and post course survey explored participants' attitudes and confidence in performing ultrasound examinations. Results: Of the 29 midwives who participated, 28 finished the programme and met the criteria specified to pass. 22 midwives completed the matched knowledge tests, with the mean (SD) score increasing from 10.2 (3.3) to 18 (2.5) after training (P <0.0001). Mean difference 7.9, 95% CI 6.5-9.2. Midwives passed 87% of the Observed Structured Clinical Examinations, establishing the gestational age to within ±7 days of an experienced practitioner in 89% of assessments. Beliefs regarding the importance of antenatal ultrasound increased post course (p = 0.02), as did confidence in performing ultrasound examinations (p <0.0001). Conclusion: This study demonstrates not only that ultrasound-naive practitioners can be taught to perform basic obstetric ultrasound dating scans, confidently and competently, after 10 days of training, but also that local teams can be orientated to successfully deliver the programme virtually. Previous ultrasound training initiatives, while often more comprehensive in their syllabus, have been of considerably longer duration and this is likely to be a barrier to upscaling opportunities. We propose that this focused training increases the potential for widescale and sustainable implementation.

Awareness of fetal movements and care package to reduce fetal mortality (AFFIRM): a trial-based and model-based cost-effectiveness analysis from a stepped wedge, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The AFFIRM intervention aimed to reduce stillbirth and neonatal deaths by increasing awareness of reduced fetal movements (RFM) and implementing a care pathway when women present with RFM. Although there is uncertainty regarding the clinical effectiveness of the intervention, the aim of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial was conducted in thirty-three hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. All women giving birth at the study sites during the analysis period were included in the study. The costs associated with implementing the intervention were estimated from audits of RFM attendances and electronic healthcare records. Trial data were used to estimate a cost per stillbirth prevented was for AFFIRM versus standard care. A decision analytic model was used to estimate the costs and number of perinatal deaths (stillbirths + early neonatal deaths) prevented if AFFIRM were rolled out across Great Britain for one year. Key assumptions were explored in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Direct costs to implement AFFIRM were an estimated £95,126 per 1,000 births. Compared to standard care, the cost per stillbirth prevented was estimated to be between £86,478 and being dominated (higher costs, no benefit). The estimated healthcare budget impact of implementing AFFIRM across Great Britain was a cost increase of £61,851,400/year. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal deaths are relatively rare events in the UK which can increase uncertainty in economic evaluations. This evaluation estimated a plausible range of costs to prevent baby deaths which can inform policy decisions in maternity services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov , number NCT01777022 .

Microbial-driven preterm labour involves crosstalk between the innate and adaptive immune response.

There has been a surge in studies implicating a role of vaginal microbiota in spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), but most are associative without mechanistic insight. Here we show a comprehensive approach to understand the causative factors of preterm birth, based on the integration of longitudinal vaginal microbiota and cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) immunophenotype data collected from 133 women at high-risk of sPTB. We show that vaginal depletion of Lactobacillus species and high bacterial diversity leads to increased mannose binding lectin (MBL), IgM, IgG, C3b, C5, IL-8, IL-6 and IL-1ß and to increased risk of sPTB. Cervical shortening, which often precedes preterm birth, is associated with Lactobacillus iners and elevated levels of IgM, C3b, C5, C5a and IL-6. These data demonstrate a role for the complement system in microbial-driven sPTB and provide a scientific rationale for the development of live biotherapeutics and complement therapeutics to prevent sPTB.

Implementation of a novel ultrasound training programme for midwives in Malawi: A mixed methods evaluation using the RE-AIM framework.

Introduction: Despite recommendation that all women receive an ultrasound in pregnancy prior to 24 weeks', this remains unavailable to many women in low-income countries where trained practitioners are scarce. Although many programmes have demonstrated efficacy, few have achieved longterm sustainability, with a lack of information about how best to implement such programmes. This mixed-methods study aimed to evaluate the implementation of a novel education package to teach ultrasound-naive midwives in Malawi basic obstetric ultrasound, assessing its impact in the context of the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Methods: The study ran across six sites in Malawi between October 2020 and June 2021, encompassing three phases; pre-implementation, implementation and post-implementation. Twenty nine midwives underwent a bespoke education package with matched pre and post course surveys assessed their knowledge, attitudes and confidence and "hands on" assessments evaluating practical skills. Training evaluation forms and in-depth interviews explored their satisfaction with the package, with repeat assessment and remote image review evaluating maintenance of skills. Results: 28/29 midwives completed the training, with significant increases in knowledge, confidence and practical skills. Adherence to the education package varied, however many changes to the proposed methodology were adaptive and appeared to facilitate the efficacy of the programme. Unfortunately, despite reporting approval regarding the training itself, satisfaction regarding supervision and follow up was mixed, reflecting the difficulties encountered with providing ongoing in-person and remote support. Conclusion: This programme was successful in improving trainees' knowledge, confidence and skill in performing basic obstetric ultrasound, largely on account of an adaptive approach to implementation. The maintenance of ongoing support was challenging, reflected by trainee dissatisfaction. By evaluating the success of this education package based on its implementation and not just its efficacy, we have generated new insights into the barriers to sustainable upscale, specifically those surrounding maintenance.

Metformin in obese pregnancy has no adverse effects on cardiovascular risk in early childhood.

Metformin is widely used in pregnancy, despite lack of long-term safety for children. We hypothesised that metformin exposure in utero is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. We tested this hypothesis in a follow-up study of children born to obese mothers who had participated in a randomised controlled trial of metformin versus placebo in pregnancy (EMPOWaR). We measured body composition, peripheral blood pressure (BP), arterial pulse wave velocity and central haemodynamics (central BP and augmentation index) using an oscillometric device in 40 children of mean (SD) age 5.78 (0.93) years, exposed to metformin (n = 19) or placebo (n = 21) in utero. There were no differences in any of the anthropometric or vascular measures between metformin and placebo-exposed groups in univariate analyses, or after adjustment for potential confounders including the child's behaviour, diet and activity levels. Post-hoc sample size calculation indicated we would have detected large clinically significant differences between the groups but would need an unfeasible large number to detect possible subtle differences in key cardiovascular risk parameters in children at this age of follow-up. Our findings suggest no evidence of increased cardiovascular risk in children born to obese mothers who took metformin in pregnancy and increase available knowledge of the long-term safety of metformin on childhood outcomes.

Bump2Baby and Me: protocol for a randomised trial of mHealth coaching for healthy gestational weight gain and improved postnatal outcomes in high-risk women and their children.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes (GDM) impacts 8-18% of pregnancies and greatly increases both maternal and child risk of developing non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes and obesity. Whilst lifestyle interventions in pregnancy and postpartum reduce this risk, a research translation gap remains around delivering implementable interventions with adequate population penetration and participation. Impact Diabetes Bump2Baby is an implementation project of an evidence-based system of care for the prevention of overweight and obesity. Bump2Baby and Me is the multicentre randomised controlled trial investigating the effectiveness of a mHealth coaching programme in pregnancy and postpartum for women at high risk of developing GDM. METHODS: Eight hundred women will be recruited in early pregnancy from 4 clinical sites within Ireland, the UK, Spain, and Australia. Women will be screened for eligibility using the validated Monash GDM screening tool. Participants will be enrolled from 12 to 24 weeks' gestation and randomised on a 1:1 basis into the intervention or control arm. Alongside usual care, the intervention involves mHealth coaching via a smartphone application, which uses a combination of synchronous and asynchronous video and text messaging, and allows for personalised support and goal setting with a trained health coach. The control arm receives usual care. All women and their children will be followed from early pregnancy until 12 months postpartum. The primary outcome will be a difference in maternal body mass index (BMI) of 0.8 kg/m2 at 12 months postpartum. Secondary maternal and infant outcomes include the development of GDM, gestational weight gain, pregnancy outcomes, improvements in diet, physical activity, sleep, and neonatal weight and infant growth patterns. The 5-year project is funded by the EU Commission Horizon 2020 and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Ethical approval has been received. DISCUSSION: Previous interventions have not moved beyond tightly controlled efficacy trials into routine service delivery. This project aims to provide evidence-based, sustainable support that could be incorporated into usual care for women during pregnancy and postpartum. This study will contribute evidence to inform the early prevention of non-communicable diseases like obesity and diabetes in mothers and the next generation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12620001240932 . Registered on 19 November 2020.

Feasibility and design of a trial regarding the optimal mode of delivery for preterm birth: the CASSAVA multiple methods study.

BACKGROUND: Around 60,000 babies are born preterm (prior to 37 weeks' gestation) each year in the UK. There is little evidence on the optimal birth mode (vaginal or caesarean section). OBJECTIVE: The overall aim of the CASSAVA project was to determine if a trial to define the optimal mode of preterm birth could be carried out and, if so, determine what sort of trial could be conducted and how it could best be performed. We aimed to determine the specific groups of preterm women and babies for whom there are uncertainties about the best planned mode of birth, and if there would be willingness to recruit to, and participate in, a randomised trial to address some, but not all, of these uncertainties. This project was conducted in response to a Heath Technology Assessment programme commissioning call (17/22 'Mode of delivery for preterm infants'). METHODS: We conducted clinician and patient surveys (n = 224 and n = 379, respectively) to identify current practice and opinion, and a consensus survey and Delphi workshop (n = 76 and n = 22 participants, respectively) to inform the design of a hypothetical clinical trial. The protocol for this clinical trial/vignette was used in telephone interviews with clinicians (n = 24) and in focus groups with potential participants (n = 13). RESULTS: Planned sample size and data saturation was achieved for all groups except for focus groups with participants, as this had to be curtailed because of the COVID-19 pandemic and data saturation was not achieved. There was broad agreement from parents and health-care professionals that a trial is needed. The clinician survey demonstrated a variety of practice and opinion. The parent survey suggested that women and their families generally preferred vaginal birth at later gestations and caesarean section for preterm infants. The interactive workshop and Delphi consensus process confirmed the need for more evidence (hence the case for a trial) and provided rich information on what a future trial should entail. It was agreed that any trial should address the areas with most uncertainty, including the management of women at 26-32 weeks' gestation, with either spontaneous preterm labour (cephalic presentation) or where preterm birth was medically indicated. Clear themes around the challenges inherent in conducting any trial emerged, including the concept of equipoise itself. Specific issues were as follows: different clinicians and participants would be in equipoise for each clinical scenario, effective conduct of the trial would require appropriate resources and expertise within the hospital conducting the trial, potential participants would welcome information on the trial well before the onset of labour and minority ethnic groups would require tailored approaches. CONCLUSION: Given the lack of evidence and the variation of practice and opinion in this area, and having listened to clinicians and potential participants, we conclude that a trial should be conducted and the outlined challenges resolved. FUTURE WORK: The CASSAVA project could be used to inform the design of a randomised trial and indicates how such a trial could be carried out. Any future trial would benefit from a pilot with qualitative input and a study within a trial to inform optimal recruitment. LIMITATIONS: Certainty that a trial could be conducted can be determined only when it is attempted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12295730. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 61. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Around 60,000 babies are born preterm each year in the UK. We do not know what the safest mode of birth is for these babies. Birth options include a vaginal birth or a caesarean section (which involves an operation for the mother). Normally, the ideal way to find out what clinical options are best is to carry out a 'randomised trial' in which participants are allocated to a particular treatment group (in this case, vaginal birth or caesarean section) by chance. It is not clear if women who have their babies preterm would want to take part in such a trial or that the clinicians looking after the women would be happy to ask them to, as previous trials have failed to recruit sufficient participants. The purpose of the CASSAVA research project was to find out what people think is the best and safest method of delivering preterm babies, their views on doing a research trial and what sort of research trial could be carried out. We conducted a survey asking clinicians and women their views. We gathered clinicians and women together to discuss and agree the key questions for a trial to answer. We then developed a protocol (plan) for a possible trial. Using this trial protocol, we conducted telephone interviews with clinicians, asking them if they would be willing to be involved and if they would be willing to ask pregnant women to participate. We also conducted focus groups with women, using a vignette (storyboard) about a possible trial. We found that there is a lot of uncertainty about the best way for preterm babies to be born. Clinicians and women broadly agreed that it would be good to resolve this uncertainty through a trial. We were able to identify some areas of the greatest uncertainty where clinicians and women would consider participating in a study. We gained a lot of useful information about how we could best set up a trial and support clinicians and women to get involved.

Direct on-swab metabolic profiling of vaginal microbiome host interactions during pregnancy and preterm birth.

The pregnancy vaginal microbiome contributes to risk of preterm birth, the primary cause of death in children under 5 years of age. Here we describe direct on-swab metabolic profiling by Desorption Electrospray Ionization Mass Spectrometry (DESI-MS) for sample preparation-free characterisation of the cervicovaginal metabolome in two independent pregnancy cohorts (VMET, n = 160; 455 swabs; VMET II, n = 205; 573 swabs). By integrating metataxonomics and immune profiling data from matched samples, we show that specific metabolome signatures can be used to robustly predict simultaneously both the composition of the vaginal microbiome and host inflammatory status. In these patients, vaginal microbiota instability and innate immune activation, as predicted using DESI-MS, associated with preterm birth, including in women receiving cervical cerclage for preterm birth prevention. These findings highlight direct on-swab metabolic profiling by DESI-MS as an innovative approach for preterm birth risk stratification through rapid assessment of vaginal microbiota-host dynamics.

The Arabin pessary to prevent preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix: the STOPPIT 2 RCT.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is common in twins and accounts for significant mortality and morbidity. There are no effective preventative treatments. Some studies have suggested that, in twin pregnancy complicated by a short cervix, the Arabin pessary, which fits around the cervix and can be inserted as an outpatient procedure, reduces preterm birth and prevents neonatal morbidity. OBJECTIVE: STOPPIT 2 aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of the Arabin cervical pessary in preventing preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. DESIGN: STOPPIT 2 was a pragmatic, open label, multicentre randomised controlled trial with two treatment group - the Arabin pessary plus standard care (intervention) and standard care alone (control). Participants were initially recruited into the screening phase of the study, when cervical length was measured. Women with a measured cervical length of ≤ 35 mm were then recruited into the treatment phase of the study. An economic evaluation considered cost-effectiveness and a qualitative substudy explored the experiences of participants and clinicians. SETTING: Antenatal clinics in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. PARTICIPANTS: Women with twin pregnancy at < 21 weeks' gestation with known chorionicity and gestation established by scan at ≤ 16 weeks' gestation. INTERVENTIONS: Ultrasound scan to establish cervical length. Women with a cervical length of ≤ 35 mm at 18+ 0-20+ 6 weeks' gestation were randomised to standard care or Arabin pessary plus standard care. Randomisation was performed by computer and accessed through a web-based browser. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetric - all births before 34+ 0 weeks' gestation following the spontaneous onset of labour; and neonatal - composite of adverse outcomes, including stillbirth or neonatal death, periventricular leukomalacia, early respiratory morbidity, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis or proven sepsis, all measured up to 28 days after the expected date of delivery. RESULTS: A total of 2228 participants were recruited to the screening phase, of whom 2170 received a scan and 503 were randomised: 250 to Arabin pessary and 253 to standard care alone. The rate of the primary obstetric outcome was 18.4% (46/250) in the intervention group and 20.6% (52/253) in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.38; p = 0.54). The rate of the primary neonatal outcome was 13.4% (67/500) and 15.0% (76/506) in the intervention group and control group, respectively (adjusted odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.36; p = 0.52). The pessary was largely well tolerated and clinicians found insertion and removal 'easy' or 'fairly easy' in the majority of instances. The simple costs analysis showed that pessary treatment is no more costly than standard care. LIMITATIONS: There was the possibility of a type II error around smaller than anticipated benefit. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the Arabin pessary did not reduce preterm birth or adverse neonatal outcomes in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. The pessary either is ineffective at reducing preterm birth or has an effect size of < 0.4. FUTURE WORK: Women with twin pregnancy remain at risk of preterm birth; work is required to find treatments for this. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN98835694 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02235181. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Women who are pregnant with twins have a much higher risk of going into labour early and having an early (preterm) birth than women who are pregnant with only one baby. For this reason, babies who are twins are much more likely to die or to have serious health complications in the first months of life. Although we know that women with twin pregnancy are at risk, there are no treatments that are recommended to prevent early births. Some studies have suggested that the Arabin pessary can help. The Arabin pessary is a silicone ring that fits around the cervix (neck of the womb). The pessary can be put in place in a clinic without any need for an anaesthetic. Some studies have suggested that the Arabin pessary helps and others have suggested that it does not. It appears to be most helpful when the cervix (neck of the womb) is already shortening. Shortening of the neck of the womb is a sign that early birth is even more likely. We asked women with twin pregnancy to take part in STOPPIT 2. Women who agreed had an ultrasound scan of the neck of the womb, which measured its length. Those with a short cervix were randomised to be offered the Arabin pessary (in addition to standard care) or standard care alone. This allocation was carried out 'at random' by a computer. We followed women up until the end of their pregnancy and collected information on the babies' health after birth. We found that the Arabin pessary did not reduce the risk of an early birth; nor did it reduce the risk of health complications for the baby. We conclude that the Arabin pessary should not be used for this purpose.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model of preterm birth for women with preterm labour symptoms (the QUIDS study): A prospective cohort study and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Timely interventions in women presenting with preterm labour can substantially improve health outcomes for preterm babies. However, establishing such a diagnosis is very challenging, as signs and symptoms of preterm labour are common and can be nonspecific. We aimed to develop and externally validate a risk prediction model using concentration of vaginal fluid fetal fibronectin (quantitative fFN), in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and assessed its cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pregnant women included in the analyses were 22+0 to 34+6 weeks gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of quantitative fFN test. The risk prediction model was developed and internally validated in an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of 5 European prospective cohort studies (2009 to 2016; 1,783 women; mean age 29.7 years; median BMI 24.8 kg/m2; 67.6% White; 11.7% smokers; 51.8% nulliparous; 10.4% with multiple pregnancy; 139 [7.8%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The model was then externally validated in a prospective cohort study in 26 United Kingdom centres (2016 to 2018; 2,924 women; mean age 28.2 years; median BMI 25.4 kg/m2; 88.2% White; 21% smokers; 35.2% nulliparous; 3.5% with multiple pregnancy; 85 [2.9%] with spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days). The developed risk prediction model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days included quantitative fFN, current smoking, not White ethnicity, nulliparity, and multiple pregnancy. After internal validation, the optimism adjusted area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.92), and the optimism adjusted Nagelkerke R2 was 35% (95% CI 33% to 37%). On external validation in the prospective UK cohort population, the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.94), and Nagelkerke R2 of 36% (95% CI: 34% to 38%). Recalibration of the model's intercept was required to ensure overall calibration-in-the-large. A calibration curve suggested close agreement between predicted and observed risks in the range of predictions 0% to 10%, but some miscalibration (underprediction) at higher risks (slope 1.24 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.26)). Despite any miscalibration, the net benefit of the model was higher than "treat all" or "treat none" strategies for thresholds up to about 15% risk. The economic analysis found the prognostic model was cost effective, compared to using qualitative fFN, at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. Study limitations include the limited number of participants who are not White and levels of missing data for certain variables in the development dataset. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that a risk prediction model including vaginal fFN concentration and clinical risk factors showed promising performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test and has potential to inform management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. Further evaluation of the risk prediction model in clinical practice is required to determine whether the risk prediction model improves clinical outcomes if used in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). The study was registered with ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN 41598423) and NIHR Portfolio (CPMS: 31277).

Options in Pregnancy to Increase ActiveLy Sitting (OPALS) Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: A negative association between obesity and pregnancy outcomes has been described, as well as between time sedentary and pregnancy outcomes. Most interventions based on physical activity involving obese pregnant women have failed in improving pregnancy outcomes. Exchanging time spent in sedentary activities with time spent in light-intensity activities, performed in a home-based setting, might help morbidly obese pregnant women. We aimed to assess the feasibility of an exercise intervention. METHODS: An exercise intervention for morbidly obese pregnant women was designed involving morbidly obese pregnant women. Pregnant women with BMI ≥ 40 kg/m² with 20 or less weeks of gestation were invited to take part in the OPALS Feasibility Study. A home-based approach was employed. Participants were asked to perform the intervention for at least 12 weeks, and to register their performance in an activity diary. After the intervention, participants were asked to return the activity diary and answer a feasibility questionnaire. RESULTS: In the intervention, 28 participants took part. Six women completed the intervention for 12 weeks or more. All declared they intended to keep on doing the intervention. All women reported that the exercises made them feel better. CONCLUSION: Empowering, and involving morbidly obese pregnant women in taking care of themselves and giving them realistic tasks to do on their own and around their environment helps to increase commitment, as does avoiding the effect of their own weight whilst exercising. A 20% of compliance was observed in this study, which might be explained by the difficulties that pregnancy and excess weight mean. Thus, for future studies, we suggest adding a supervision plan to increase that number.

Evaluation of the Arabin cervical pessary for prevention of preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and short cervix (STOPPIT-2): An open-label randomised trial and updated meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preterm-labour-associated preterm birth is a common cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity in twin pregnancy. We aimed to test the hypothesis that the Arabin pessary would reduce preterm-labour-associated preterm birth by 40% or greater in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an open-label randomised controlled trial in 57 hospital antenatal clinics in the UK and Europe. From 1 April 2015 to 14 February 2019, 2,228 women with a twin pregnancy underwent cervical length screening between 18 weeks 0 days and 20 weeks 6 days of gestation. In total, 503 women with cervical length ≤ 35 mm were randomly assigned to pessary in addition to standard care (n = 250, mean age 32.4 years, mean cervical length 29 mm, with pessary inserted in 230 women [92.0%]) or standard care alone (n = 253, mean age 32.7 years, mean cervical length 30 mm). The pessary was inserted before 21 completed weeks of gestation and removed at between 35 and 36 weeks or before birth if earlier. The primary obstetric outcome, spontaneous onset of labour and birth before 34 weeks 0 days of gestation, was present in 46/250 (18.4%) in the pessary group compared to 52/253 (20.6%) following standard care alone (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.55-1.38], p = 0.54). The primary neonatal outcome-a composite of any of stillbirth, neonatal death, periventricular leukomalacia, early respiratory morbidity, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis, or proven sepsis, from birth to 28 days after the expected date of delivery-was present in 67/500 infants (13.4%) in the pessary group compared to 76/506 (15.0%) following standard care alone (aOR 0.86 [95% CI 0.54-1.36], p = 0.50). The positive and negative likelihood ratios of a short cervix (≤35 mm) to predict preterm birth before 34 weeks were 2.14 and 0.83, respectively. A meta-analysis of data from existing publications (4 studies, 313 women) and from STOPPIT-2 indicated that a cervical pessary does not reduce preterm birth before 34 weeks in women with a short cervix (risk ratio 0.74 [95% CI 0.50-1.11], p = 0.15). No women died in either arm of the study; 4.4% of babies in the Arabin pessary group and 5.5% of babies in the standard treatment group died in utero or in the neonatal period (p = 0.53). Study limitations include lack of power to exclude a smaller than 40% reduction in preterm labour associated preterm birth, and to be conclusive about subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: These results led us to reject our hypothesis that the Arabin pessary would reduce the risk of the primary outcome by 40%. Smaller treatment effects cannot be ruled out. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN 02235181. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02235181.

Interventions to reduce preterm birth and stillbirth, and improve outcomes for babies born preterm in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Reducing preterm birth and stillbirth and improving outcomes for babies born too soon is essential to reduce under-5 mortality globally. In the context of a rapidly evolving evidence base and problems with extrapolating efficacy data from high- to low-income settings, an assessment of the evidence for maternal and newborn interventions specific to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is required. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was done. We included all studies performed in LMICs since the Every Newborn Action Plan, between 2013 - 2018, which reported on interventions where the outcome assessed was reduction in preterm birth or stillbirth incidence and/or a reduction in preterm infant neonatal mortality. Evidence was categorised according to maternal or neonatal intervention groups and a narrative synthesis conducted. RESULTS: 179 studies (147 primary evidence studies and 32 systematic reviews) were identified in 82 LMICs. 81 studies reported on maternal interventions and 98 reported on neonatal interventions. Interventions in pregnant mothers which resulted in significant reductions in preterm birth and stillbirth were (i) multiple micronutrient supplementation and (ii) enhanced quality of antenatal care. Routine antenatal ultrasound in LMICs increased identification of fetal antenatal conditions but did not reduce stillbirth or preterm birth due to the absence of services to manage these diagnoses. Interventions in pre-term neonates which improved their survival included (i) feeding support including probiotics and (ii) thermal regulation. Improved provision of neonatal resuscitation did not improve pre-term mortality rates, highlighting the importance of post-resuscitation care. Community mobilisation, for example through community education packages, was found to be an effective way of delivering interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence supports the implementation of several low-cost interventions with the potential to deliver reductions in preterm birth and stillbirth and improve outcomes for preterm babies in LMICs. These, however, must be complemented by overall health systems strengthening to be effective. Quality improvement methodology and learning health systems approaches can provide important means of understanding and tackling implementation challenges within local contexts. Further pragmatic efficacy trials of interventions in LMICs are essential, particularly for interventions not previously tested in these contexts.

Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management. OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers. DESIGN: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies. SETTING: Source data from secondary and tertiary care. PREDICTORS: We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia. ANALYSIS: We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I2 and τ2. A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals. RESULTS: The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia. LIMITATIONS: Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data. CONCLUSION: For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings. FUTURE WORK: Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Pre-eclampsia, a condition in pregnancy that results in raised blood pressure and protein in the urine, is a major cause of complications for the mother and baby. WHAT IS NEEDED?: A way of accurately identifying women at high risk of pre-eclampsia to allow clinicians to start preventative interventions such as administering aspirin or frequently monitoring women during pregnancy. WHERE ARE THE RESEARCH GAPS?: Although over 100 tools (models) have been reported worldwide to predict pre-eclampsia, to date their performance in women managed in the UK NHS is unknown. WHAT DID WE PLAN TO DO?: We planned to comprehensively identify all published models that predict the risk of pre-eclampsia occurring at any time during pregnancy and to assess if this prediction is accurate in the UK population. If the existing models did not perform satisfactorily, we aimed to develop new prediction models. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We formed the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network, which provided data from a large number of studies (78 studies, 25 countries, 125 researchers, 3,570,993 singleton pregnancies). We were able to assess the performance of 24 out of the 131 models published to predict pre-eclampsia in 11 UK data sets. The models did not accurately predict the risk of pre-eclampsia across all UK data sets, and their performance varied within individual data sets. We developed new prediction models that showed promising performance on average across all data sets, but their ability to correctly identify women who develop pre-eclampsia varied between populations. The models were more clinically useful when used in the care of first-time mothers pregnant with one child, compared to a strategy of treating them all as if they were at high-risk of pre-eclampsia. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: Before using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models in various populations, they need to be adjusted for characteristics of the particular population and the setting of application.